Global temperatures have, for the first time in recorded history, surpassed 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past year, breaking a vital threshold that, if sustained, may challenge Earth's capacity for adaptation.
Over the past year, global temperatures averaged 1.52 degrees higher than pre-industrial levels, according to data from Copernicus, the European Union's climate and weather observatory. This record-breaking average was spurred by the warmest January ever documented, which was 1.66 degrees above the pre-industrial January average.
The Paris Agreement, which nearly all nations signed in 2015, aims to restrict global warming to below 2 degrees, with a preference for a 1.5-degree target.
While scientists prioritize concerns about sustained multi-year temperature rises above these levels, the recent 12-month record underscores the rapid approach toward the Paris Agreement's limits.
Matt Patterson, an atmospheric physics research assistant at the University of Oxford, described the milestone as “significant,” but clarified that it doesn’t indicate failure in the Paris Agreement.
“Yet, reaching 1.5°C within one year highlights how quickly the opportunity to achieve deep emissions reductions is closing, if we are to prevent severe climate change,” he added.
Temperature records over both land and sea have consistently been set over the past year. The last eight consecutive months have each been the hottest on record, according to Copernicus, with 2023 marking the warmest year ever recorded.
January’s global sea surface temperatures also hit unprecedented highs for that month, averaging 0.26 degrees warmer than the previous record set in 2016.
“The start of 2024 brought another historic month – not only was it the warmest January on record, but the last 12 months have averaged more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels,” noted Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of Copernicus. “Only by drastically cutting greenhouse gas emissions can we halt the rise in global temperatures.”
Human activity, especially burning fossil fuels like coal, oil, and gas for energy, is the primary driver of the climate crisis. El Niño, a natural Pacific Ocean climate pattern, has also contributed to recent temperature increases across much of the planet.
Scientists report that long-term global warming, already intensifying the frequency and severity of extreme weather, is now being amplified by El Niño, producing particularly destructive outcomes.
In Chile, more than 160 wildfires that have burned across vast areas have claimed over 120 lives and razed entire neighborhoods, marking the deadliest fires in the country’s modern history.
Scientists noted that El Niño also intensified California’s storms this week, increasing rainfall and heightening the storms' impact.
